8 February 2008
CP Rail May Face Economic Risk, but Considered Low-Risk Option for Global Exposure
When Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd.'s fourth quarter results beat analyst estimates on 29 Jan 2007, the shares jumped more
than 3.5%. They have risen more than $2 since, closing at $69.43 in Toronto on Thursday. But Odlum Brown analyst Stephen Boland thinks
they have more room to run given his $85 price target and "buy" recommendation.
In a note to clients, he reminded investors that CP's proposal to buy Dakota, Minnesota, & Eastern Railroad Corp. (DM&E), the
largest regional railroad in the U.S., is currently being reviewed by the U.S. Surface Transportation Board for approval. A decision is
expected in the fall, but until then, CP's management has indicated that DM&E's results are coming in as expected, Mr. Boland said.
CP also maintained its outlook for 2008, which was previously announced in November. It calls for revenue growth of 4% to 6% and prices
to rise 3% to 5%. Adjusted earnings are forecast to be $4.70 to $4.85 per share, which implies growth of 9% to 12%, he added.
While the analyst likes CP's prospects in the very near term given its exposure to global growth, he is nonetheless cautious and thinks
opinions of this exposure could be overly optimistic. "We tend to be of the belief that it is quite likely that the global economy
will cool more than most expect, and this is something that may not be priced into stocks exposed to global growth (unlike those with
higher U.S. exposure, where the belief of recession is becoming increasingly common)," Mr. Boland said.
He does like the long-term outlook for North American railroads, as well as the long-term global growth
story, and considers CP a low-risk option for those seeking this exposure versus other
stocks.
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